A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
